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The proliferation of remote-controlled home appliances and inexpensive halogen lighting may create demand for energy in the next two decades that could cancel out efficiency gains in major appliances.

During the energy crisis of the 1970s, most Americans got in the habit of turning the lights out while away from home. Twenty years later, that may be the only thing we do to conserve energy. In 1997, 5 percent of Americans say a potential energy shortage is one of the top two or three things they are most concerned about, according to Roper Starch Worldwide. That's down from 46 percent in 1974, when energy supplies were short and prices high.

Americans appear relatively complacent now about the current availability of residential energy, but they also recognize that ample supplies can't last forever. In December 1994, 58 percent of U.S. adults said a shortage of energy supplies would be a serious problem 25 to 50 years down the road. That share is down from a peak of 68 percent in 1980, but it represents a substantial increase from 50 percent in 1984.

Even with these long-term concerns, U.S. households are gobbling up energy as much as ever, and are expected to increase their overall consumption 17 percent between 1995 and 2015, according to projections from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy.

The increase is anticipated despite huge improvements in the energy efficiency of heating and cooling units, and of many major household appliances. Beginning in 1993, federal regulations required that all new refrigerators sold consume no more than 690 kilowatt-hours of electricity per year-30 percent less energy than used by previous models. Another round of regulations takes effect in 2001 that require an additional 30 percent increase in refrigerator efficiency.

Regulations like these have led to a 4 percent decrease annually since 1987 in energy used by home refrigerators, according to the EIA. And the agency projects about a 2 percent annual decline to 2015, as consumers replace older refrigerators with more efficient models. "Just the turnover effect is huge," says John Cymbalsky, an energy-demand analyst with the EIA. As recently as 15 years ago, home refrigerators used up to 1,200 kilowatt-hours a year. So replacement refrigerators often use 50 percent less electricity than an older unit.

The projections for energy used by home refrigerators also assume that some super-efficient models will be on the market in 1998. This is based on utility-sponsored programs such as the "golden carrot" contest, where refrigerator manufacturers competed in designing extremely energy-efficient home refrigerators. In return for designing and manufacturing these units, the winner's sales were subsidized by the sponsoring utility firms in order to keep prices competitive with less-efficient refrigerators.

Whirlpool Corporation won the contest with a full-featured side-by-side refrigerator that used 30 percent to 40 percent less electricity a year than standard models. The refrigerator sold well, largely because its subsidized price made it competitive with similar models. However, consumers shunned the refrigerators when they were marketed outside the "golden carrot" program.

"We did have trial marketing and that was not successful," says Richard Best, Whirlpool's director of environmental safety and health. "There was just no interest at the non-subsidized price. Once the subsidy disappeared, so did the sales."

"We can't continue to

produce high-efficiency models if consumers

won't pay for them."

That's the problem faced by most manufacturers of home appliances: you can usually produce less energy-efficient appliances more cheaply than high-efficiency ones. Whirlpool and its competitors have the technology to produce efficient appliances, but consumers don't value the long-term savings enough to fork out extra cash for the initial purchase. "We've actually reduced the number of high-efficiency models for competitive reasons," Best says. "We can't continue to produce high-efficiency models if

consumers won't pay for them."

It appears that refrigerator manufacturers won't put their most-efficient technology on the market any time soon, and even if they did, Americans wouldn't buy these units. However, some electricity savings will be realized in 2001, when all manufacturers must comply with the next round of energy standards.

Economists at the Energy Information Administration are also betting on some improvements in how well new and existing homes conserve the energy it takes to heat and cool them. "We have modest gains in the forecast for both new and existing homes," says Cymbalsky, the EIA analyst. "The problem is energy prices in real terms are expected to fall. So we won't have the same rate of improvement as we saw in the 1970s."

New-home builders face the same obstacle as appliance manufacturers-homes with energy-saving features cost more to construct, and many buyers aren't willing to pay the premium. Yet many communities are mandating minimum energy efficiency in new homes through building codes. Energy savings may also be boosted by loan programs that provide extra money for buyers who are willing to add conservation features, Cymbalsky says.

Owners of older homes are expected to improve the energy efficiency of their dwellings to 2015, not necessarily by design, but by making needed repairs. For instance, a share of homeowners will replace windows each year. "They will retire older windows first, and those tend to be single-paned. You can't even buy single-pane windows anymore," Cymbalsky says. "Even without assuming anything about the future improvements in residential efficiency, just the turnover of aging windows in older homes will net a 20 percent gain in energy efficiency."

If houses will be tighter and refrigerators use less electricity, why are households expected to use 17 percent more energy from all sources in 2015 than in 1995? The answer doesn't lie with big energy gobblers, such as furnaces and air conditioners, but with the smallest appliances in U.S. households. "The trend is clear that major home appliances will continue to become more efficient," says John Morrill, director of operations for the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy. "But at the same time, people are finding new ways to use energy."

"home appliances will

continue to become more efficient. but at the same time, people are finding

new ways to use energy."

Home electronics with remote controls and other "stand-by" functions are a major culprit. The large square plugs on most of these, known as power supplies or transformers, draw energy every moment they are plugged in. Dozens of products use these power-supply plugs, including TVs, VCRs, cordless telephones, answering machines, and hand-held vacuum cleaners. A residence with four such appliances plugged in will use 50 watts of standby electricity for almost 9,000 hours a year, for a total of 438 kilowatt-hours a year, Morrill says. That equals the efficiency gains in the average refrigerator between 1984 and 1994.

The growing number of devices that use stand-by energy largely accounts for the EIA's projections for increased household consumption of electricity to 2015. The average U.S. household used about 36 million British Thermal Units (BTUs) of electricity in 1995, but may consume almost 40 million BTUs in 2015. Energy of all types consumed by "other" uses, which include these small appliances, may grow 48 percent between 1995 and 2015, to 76 million BTUs per U.S. household.

Increased energy consumption for small appliances has prompted the EIA to collect more detailed data to identify which products are most energy intensive. Preliminary data show that one big hog is television sets, says Cymbalsky. TV screens are larger than ever, and a 30-inch TV uses considerably more power than the smaller-screen models that were more common ten years ago.

Another energy hog is hot-burning halogen lamps, commonly available in most office-supply and discount stores. "They're very cheap, and people are buying them like crazy," Cymbalsky says. Between 1992 and 1997, annual energy used to power the lamps increased from 0.33 terawatt-hours to 11.91 terawatt-hours, he says.

The EIA is already working on its next round of energy-use projections. The main change in the complex modeling involved will be the lighting forecast, due to the popularity of hot-burning halogen lamps, says Cymbalsky. "Otherwise, not much has changed that would cause the model to churn out different results." Of course, analysts can't predict world events that might tighten oil supplies, raise prices in the U.S., and curtail consumption of certain energy sources. In the meantime, Americans are happy to plug in whatever makes home life a little easier.

Behind The Numbers