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Reflections and projections - Insider: College Basketball
We love lists so much at this time of year, it's kind of surprising nobody ever puts together a list of the year's top lists.
Something like: 1. Roger Ebert's 10 best movies of 2002; 2. ESPN's top 10 SportsCenter moments; 3. The FBI's 10 most wanted. 4. Google's top 20 searches; 5. Debbie DeCourcy's top five ways to combine chocolate and peanut butter in a Christmas cookie.
Most year-end lists mark a place in history. They are an ending. As we barely are a third of the way into this season, it is no time for mere reflection. So this list of the game's five most noteworthy trends of 2002 looks backward and forward at once:
* 1. The emergence of the Big 12. Leagues such as the Big East and Conference USA have struggled under the weight of expansion, but the Big 12 has been empowered by its growth.
The Big 12 flourished in 2001-02, when Oklahoma and Kansas reached the Final Four, and Missouri and Texas joined them in the Sweet 16. Texas Tech's hiring of Bob Knight as coach not only rejuvenated the Red Raiders, it also energized the entire league. Having the state of Texas connected to a league that genuinely cares about basketball helps keep a hold on some of its rich talent pool.
Impact for 2003: Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas began this season expected to rank among the top half-dozen teams in the nation. The Sooners are struggling to find the scoring punch to approximate last year's success, but they could develop into an elite team if freshmen Kevin Bookout and DeAngelo Alexander progress. Kansas is finding its stride after a difficult start that resulted from an increased emphasis on playing at high speed. Texas needs only to narrow its offensive focus. Point guard T.J. Ford can make a scorer of anybody, but there must be a hierarchy in tight games.
The Big 12 and its progenitor, the Big Eight, haven't had Final Four teams in consecutive years since 1957 and 1958, but expect at least one member in New Orleans.
* 2. Mike Davis' walk In the spotlight. The Indiana coach began 2002 by getting a fine from the Big Ten for comments about officials who worked his team's loss to Butler. The year ended with the league threatening to suspend him for charging the court to confront officials who worked his team's loss to Kentucky. In between, Davis coached his team to the national championship game.
Part of the curse of following Knight at Indiana is increased scrutiny, but Davis attracted more attention by being uncommonly honest with the media and occasionally too emotional with referees.
Davis' direct answers to such questions as whether he wanted to coach in the NBA--really now, who doesn't want to hit the lottery?--gave ammunition to media members who will twist any quote to their advantage. Those answers also bothered some of Davis' colleagues, who invented coach-speak for a reason.
Impact for 2003: His detractors must deal with Davis because this Indiana team is excellent, and he is a very effective coach. But expect Davis to mature more rapidly in his position to avoid becoming the same kind of controversial target as his predecessor.
* 3. The fabulous freshmen. The best crop since Chris Jackson, Alonzo Mourning, Billy Owens and Christian Laettner stormed the scene in 1988-89 is rearranging the college basketball landscape.
Five of the top seven teams in last week's TSN Power Poll had at least one freshman starter. Rookies Bracey Wright (Indiana), Dee Brown (Illinois) and Torin Francis (Notre Dame) were hugely responsible for their teams' early success.
Impact for 2003: There will be more freshmen making crucial decisions under March pressure. Last season, Kansas' Aaron Miles was the only freshman starter in the Final Four. There could be four or five this year, but they'll have to make plays to get there.
* 4. Mid-major rejection. The 2002 NCAA Tournament selection committee omitted a 25-5 Butler team that defeated eventual runner-up Indiana on a neutral floor. Bowling Green and Ball State also had decent cases but were ignored. Despite brilliant records, automatic entrants Gonzaga and Western Kentucky were seeded well below teams they defeated in the regular season.
The committee claimed schedule strength excused these lapses in judgment, then watched as Mid-American Conference champ Kent State came within 40 minutes of reaching the Final Four.
Impact for 2003: Though the committee should be stronger this year, don't expect significantly better treatment for the mid-majors. That's because there will be less by which to judge them. The disappearance of many exempt tournaments because of a rule limiting teams to two appearances in four seasons gave the mids fewer chances to play neutral-court games against big-time opponents.
* 5. The collapse of the big con. Most NBA teams wisely reversed their direction on drafting for potential in 2002 and began choosing players who might help them win.
Marcus Taylor (Michigan State), Rod Grizzard (Alabama), Roger Mason (Virginia) and McDonald's All-American DeAngelo Collins figured they were first-round material if guys such as Samuel Dalembert and DeSagana Diop made it. But the league instead went for more developed players, such as Maryland's Juan Dixon, Notre Dame's Ryan Humphrey and Fresno State's Melvin Ely.
Impact for 2003: The fact a prep player, LeBron lames of Akron, Ohio, will be the No. 1 overall pick might lead inexperienced prospects to think the process is changing back in their favor.
Many players want this to be easy. It's not. If they want proof, we can give them a list of guys who had the ability to establish enduring NBA careers but failed because they weren't properly prepared. There are many more than 10 names on that list.
Think the season begins with conference play? Then you'll want to pick up the College Basketball Preview Magazine now at www.sportingnews.com/ books/cbasketball.
M@IL BONDING
MIKE DeCOURCY ANSWERS YOUR QUESTIONS
Will Wisconsin ever get any credit for its 8-2 record?
Vele Jankovic, Kenosha, Wits.
Vele: The short answer to your question is no. And the Badgers probably shouldn't get any credit.
Only three of their first 10 games were against major-conference opponents. They lost two of those by a combined 19 points. One of the losses, to Wake Forest, was at home. Two of their wins were against mid-major teams of some quality: Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Eastern Washington. Their best victory came in a home game against UNLV. This is not the resume of a team that is, at the moment, underrated.
That's not to say Wisconsin can't develop into a significant team. In fact, the Badgers fought Marquette hard enough in Milwaukee's Bradley Center to suggest they are capable of being an effective Big Ten road team. They need to be. They will be visitors in three of their first four conference games.
SPEED READS
* Don't buy the argument that Lon Kruger's firing by the Hawks is proof college coaches can't cut it in the pros. It's possible the only people who thought Kruger would succeed worked in Atlanta's front office--and haven't they proved incompetent? In 14 years as a major-conference coach, Kruger won a share of one league title. The hire was doomed on three levels: lousy players, crummy management, mediocre coach.
* Pittsburgh held six of its first nine opponents to 55 or fewer points, and four didn't even score 50. In the Steel City, that kind of defense usually gets a team a catchy nickname and a spot in the Super Bowl.
* Lost in the tumult regarding Indiana coach Mike Davis' outburst in a loss to Kentucky was the smooth, professional demeanor of official Bert Smith. Smith gave Davis two chances to calm down before issuing two technicals and ejecting Davis. If Smith handles other tough circumstances this well, he should advance as deep into this year's NCAA tourney as Davis did in last year's.
INSIDE DISH
By MIKE DeCOURCY