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For the past few weeks, the river of U.S. mail has been swollen by seasonal freshets and not just of tax returns. Thick packets of college acceptances have been going one way, and the pleas for financial aid that have become all too inevitable have traveled the other way. For financial aid is often the only ticket to a higher education, and the bad news this fall is that tuition is expected to rise by 5.5 to 10 percent-outpacing inflation for the eighth year in a row. Even two-income families are likely to be burdened.

The good news is that nearly $26.5 billion in student financial aid, most of it from federal sources, will be available -almost 30 percent more than last year. The Guaranteed Student Loan (GSL) program, the biggest federal student-aid effort-families last year tapped it for $9.1 billion-is an entitlement program, so everyone who's eligible can get a loan until funds run out. Eligibility is based on need, and establishing need involves a complex process of figuring out how much a family is expected to contribute.

Even after making that contribution, many families are left staring across a gap. The upshot is that 63 percent of all students at private schools and 31 percent at public colleges receive aid in the form of grants, loans and scholarships and in work-study programs.

Financial aid supposedly goes to the students who need it the most. In practice, it is apt to go to those who best understand how to apply for it, a process that has recently become more complicated. Any family with an adjusted gross income of $30,000 or less, for example, used to qualify automatically for a GSL, which borrowers don't have to -start repaying until six months after completing their studies. Starting this year, everyone must demonstrate need. And depending on the kind of aid or where you live, another new provision might force you to fill out literally yards of forms, since a family's expected contribution and ultimate need for aid now are figured three different ways-by the Congressional Method, the Uniform Methodology and the Pell Grant Methodology.

Applying for a Pell you won't get

Shortcuts are few. Even if your family clearly won't qualify for a Pell Grant-a federal gift of up to $2,500 for the neediest undergraduates-you now have to apply for one to be eligible for a GSL. And colleges and states won't consider you for other awards unless you've at least tried to get a Pell.

Qualifying for financial aid depends on family income and assets, family size, how many parents work, age of the oldest parent, number of family members in college at the same time and the cost of attendance. Most aid is based on "demonstrated need," generally defined as the difference between what a family is expected to contribute and the total cost. The College Cost Book, from the College Board, gives complete costs, for both resident and commuter students, at more than 3,100 colleges and universities. (See "Tools for Digging Up Aid," page 77.) If your family contribution doesn't meet the cost of college, you are eligible for a low-interest GSL. Freshmen and sophomores can borrow up to $2,625, while juniors and seniors may borrow as much as $4,000 per year.

The tricky part is figuring the family contribution. The need-analysis system operates on a brutal principle: Your family can set aside some money for taxes, living expenses and retirement, and the college gets just about anything left over. If your family is locked into a high standard of living, with huge mortgage payments, big utility bills and expensive upkeep, the small allowance probably won't cover expenses, and your expected contribution will appear impossibly large. So what should you do?

Students are usually expected to contribute their share, drawn from savings and summer or part-time-job earnings. Colleges usually expect a freshman to contribute at least $700 a year, and new federal rules could result in higher expectations for some students in the future.

The more college students in a family, the less parents are expected to pay per student. If Dad needs to complete his degree, he might consider the advantages of returning to school at the same time one or more children are in college. But you must be at least a half-time student to qualify for most federal grants and loans. So if you're a part-time student and want to qualify for aid, take one more course each semester. And you have to earn a C average to maintain eligibility; if you worry you might not keep up, start with a light course load.

Retirement funds figure into the picture, too. The older the primary wage earner, the more assets the family is allowed to protect, so the lower the expected contribution to a college education' for Junior. A 45-year-old father who earns $35,000 has $60,000 in net assets and has one child, for example, would have to contribute $5,212 a year to his child's education. A 55-year-old man in the same situation would have to fork over just $3,571 a year.

Once your family's share is assessed, you can figure out the "remaining need," which will determine whether you qualify for a GSL and how much you can borrow. The arithmetic is simply the cost of attending college, less your family contribution and any other aid-from scholarships, campus-based assistance, work-study programs and veterans' benefits, for example.

Here's how it might work. Say a family is judged capable of contributing $3,500 to college costs, but Junior wants don't know where they'll go, let alone whether they'll qualify for aid, should apply for admission and aid together. For schools on the East and West coasts, you will probably send your financial aid application to the College Board's College Scholarship Service; for schools in the Midwest and South, it goes to the American College Testing Program. The financial-aid offices at schools in which you're interested can tell you where to submit your forms. "I recommend starting the process when you're doing your taxes, because there are a lot of line items relating to tax forms on the financial aid forms," says Rhonda Norsetter, associate director of the student-financial-aid office at the University of Wisconsin. Be careful. Omitting a Social Security number, forgetting your signature and other common mistakes can cause the form to bounce, and the delay could leave you at the end of the money line.

You should resent our family's situation for need analysis in the most favorable terms the law allows. To lower taxable income, for example, employ your child in some work capacity. The practice is clearly self-serving but perfectly legal if it's a necessary and deductible business expense. Keep in mind though that if you pay more in taxes, aid eligibility increases; pay less in taxes, and aid eligibility declines.

Proving independence

The family contribution isn't just the parents'. It includes the student's contribution as well. So anyone who qualifies as an independent student, as opposed to a student dependent on parental support, only has his or her income and assets evaluated, and that could result in more aid. If you're unmarried or younger than 24, you'll have to prove your independence by showing an annual income of at least $4,000. Colleges may also require written proof that the student's parents-or even grandparents can provide no support.

A family contribution that seems way out of line should be discussed with the school's financial-aid officer. "Final responsibility rests with the college aid office to either accept the family contribution or change it," says Don Betterton, Princeton University's director of financial aid. This is also the place to negotiate a total aid package which, besides a government grant or loan, can include short and long-term loans from the college's own resources or even tuition remissions. And campus work-study programs, which provide roughly 3 percent of total financial aid, put students to work, typically for 10 to 15 hours a week, at minimum wage in such jobs as dining-hall workers, library assistants, secretaries or lab assistants.

After going through the financial-aid maze, you've still got the family's share of college expenses to cover. Interest charges for student loans unfortunately are no longer completely tax-deductible. Taxpayers can write off just 40 percent of the interest this year, 20 percent next year and 10 percent in 1990. The Tax Reform Act has left only one itemized deduction that homeowners may use to help finance an education: The home equity loan. Interest on debt in excess of a house's value may still be deductible if used for educational or medical expenses.