Cash millionaire money site web

Calculating the price of power; the race for cash has never been more crucial

`Your check for $25, $50, $100, $250, $500 or even $1,000 will help me pay for brochures, posters, bumper stickers and TV ads ..." So reads the message fom Pat Buchanan on his campaign's World Wide Web site. Lamar Alexander was thinking in bigger terms. Last week, he urged 250 supporters to raise $1 million for his campaign in just a few days. Bob Dole, meanwhile, is having it both ways, relying on his extensive financial network of Republican bigwigs and soliciting contributions as small as $5 apiece through a direct-mail campaign.

This year, the witch's brew of politics and money is more potent than ever. With 28 primaries and caucuses tumbled together in such a compressed schedule over the next few weeks, the field of GOP candidates is under unprecedented financial pressure, says Anthony Corrado, co-author of Financing the 1992 Election. The sheer number of contested states is one thing. But the size of key battlegrounds like Florida and Texas demands a multimillion-dollar television advertising budget that could test even the checkbook of front-runner Dole should he show signs of faltering after New Hampshire. Dole has nearly hit the limit of funds he can raise under election law, but he will be able to draw on federal matching funds and borrow against future matching funds. A strong showing in New Hampshire by his GOP rivals would prompt a stampede of new contributors to those camps unburdened by having hit the federal fund-raising ceiling.

In such a scenario, millionaire publisher Steve Forbes is a wild card, financing his campaign out of his own pocket. Without Forbes's personal wealth, Dole, Buchanan and Alexander are the top-tier contenders most concerned with campaign contributions.

Buchanan is surprisingly well financed, given the grass-roots nature of his campaign. Factoring in both federal matching money and campaign debts, he expects to have at least $2.5 million to use by March. The key is a small army of givers. In his challenge of George Bush in 1992, Buchanan compiled a list of approximately 165,000 donors--a list on which he built for 1996. The strategy appears to be paying off. By the end of 1995, 86,843 people had contributed to Buchanan. An additional 23,947 contributions, totaling $711,456, rolled in before the January filing date for federal matching funds--the highest of any candidate. Buchanan appears to have the best direct-mail operation at the moment. Within the past three weeks, his campaign sent out 1.8 million new mailings. At just a 1.8 percent return with an average contribution of $15, Buchanan could pull in some $486,000 from that effort. The givers are people like Lloyd Graham of Grants Pass, Ore. Graham received several letters containing Buchanan position papers and fund-raising appeals. He replied with $30. In New Hampshire, Wendy Adams has a pile of mail from several candidates, including Buchanan. First Adams received phone calls from Buchanan staffers asking if she would contribute; the calls were followed by two or three "brief and to the point" letters spelling out Buchanan's positions. Adams gave money only to Buchanan, $75.

Some sources of Buchanan's support could prove controversial. Buchanan counts among his contributors at least six of the larger contributors to the 1991 Louisiana gubernatorial campaign of former Ku Klux Klansman David Duke. Buchanan's campaign treasurer, Scott Mackenzie, replies that "David Duke and we are poles apart." Still, the potential for controversy is there. Last week, Buchanan's campaign cochairman, Larry Pratt, director of Gun Owners of America, took a leave of absence from the campaign after reports linked him to radical right-wing militia leaders. Buchanan says he wants nothing to do with any group promoting white supremacy and vows to stand by Pratt. Pratt's associations aside, Buchanan could benefit from other kinds of grass-roots givers, especially if members of the Christian Coalition throw more support his way.

However, three state directors of the Christian Coalition said last week that it's too early to know whether significant numbers of their members will swing to Buchanan or Dole. "[They are asking themselves], `Do I vote with my heart or do I vote with who I think can win?'" said John Dowless, executive director of the Florida Christian Coalition.

Alexander has a much more traditional fund-raising strategy than does Buchanan. As of last week, Alexander had $1.4 million in cash on hand, including federal matching funds and loans against anticipated matching money. Ted Welch, Alexander's high-powered finance director, is aiming to raise $2.6 million quickly. The expected source: Alexander fund-raisers planned for New York, Los Angeles, Dallas and at least five other major cities. Unlike Buchanan, Alexander targets bigger donors. Everyone who has contributed $1,000 to date is being asked to raise another $1,000. People who haven't given the legal maximum of $1,000 are being asked to max out with another check. Only now is Alexander embarking on his first serious direct-mail campaign.

For a self-proclaimed Washington outsider, Alexander draws on a close circle of well-connected insiders. Six members of his campaign finance committee are former finance chairmen of the Republican National Committee. One of his national finance cochairmen, Sam Bamieh, recently cut short a business trip to Europe because he was deluged with calls from friends wanting to contribute to the campaign.

For Alexander, raising significant new money will be critical, but he will be well positioned if Dole falters. "If it's a choice between Buchanan and Alexander," says consultant Joe Napolitan, "big money realizes Buchanan can't make it."

Much of that money would go to TV advertising, says campaign manager Dan Pero. Alexander doesn't plan to add staff or open more offices beyond the one each he has in South Carolina, Arizona and Florida. "We want to be sure," Pero explains, "we can run the kind of campaign in the states that will give us the biggest dividend."

Dole is far and away the leader in money raised to date. At the end of December he had $4.4 million in cash on hand and was owed $9 million in federal matching funds. Through January, he had raised an additional $674,000 from 13,649 donors. Should Dole need more money quickly, he can turn to a network of powerful supporters. They include Fisher Brothers, a New York City development company; E. & J. Gallo Winery, and agribusiness colossus Archer Daniels Midland. Unlike Alexander, Dole long ago established a vigorous direct-mail operation that continues to generate a stream of contributions.

Even for a candidate as well financed as Dole, the money crunch ahead could be critical. TV ads for Texas and Florida and the other states in the two weeks leading up to Super Tuesday on March 12 could easily cost $4 million to $5 million.

Will money make the difference? Not entirely, but because of this year's accelerated campaign schedule, advertising will be key, and that costs big bucks. Campaign expert Corrado says that if he were running a campaign this year, he would focus on only those primaries that are winnable. Dole and Buchanan will have to show strength in the South, and South Carolina is one place they could succeed. On the other hand, Alexander and Buchanan can profit by leaving Dole to battle Forbes in the expensive New York primary five days later.

Even Dole will not be immune from cash flow problems if he shows signs of weakness. Whatever money the candidates can raise will have to be immediately bankable because campaigns usually have to pay in advance for television time, hotel rooms and air charters.

Still, money isn't everything, as former candidate Phil Gramm found out. "It is never the most important factor," consultant Napolitan says. "More important is what the message is."